British shoppers seek autumn staples, while grocery inflation edges up to 2.5%

Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 1.0% in the four weeks to 4 October 2026 compared with a year ago, according to our latest data. Like-for-like grocery price inflation rose to 2.5%, compared to the 2.3% reported 4 weeks ago.

With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers. And the cost of filling up a car is only adding to the pressure on household budgets. More than half tell us they’re very or extremely worried about petrol prices, and almost one in three say it’s already taking a real toll on their finances*. Until the Chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control.

With spending on promotions in the last month up by more than a quarter of a billion pounds compared with last year, special offers remain a key tool for shoppers looking to keep their grocery bills in check, or to make pricier items and larger packs more affordable.

Shoppers warming up for autumn

As summer gave way to cooler weather in September, shoppers traded barbecues for comfort food and suncream for cold remedies. The number of shoppers buying hot chocolate rose by 41% in September when compared with August, while those buying soup increased by 35%. Hearty home cooking made a comeback too, with 24% more shoppers buying gravy and 35% more buying frozen roast potatoes. The colder weather had its downsides, though: sales of facial tissues rose by 13% as the first colds of the season started doing the rounds.

Chocolate prices ease ahead of key seasonal moments

Halloween preparations are well underway, with 1.2 million households buying a pumpkin over the latest four weeks, an increase of 10% compared with the same time last year. More than 250,000 households purchased a pumpkin spice coffee over the last month as they got into the festive spirit. Shoppers stocking up on trick or treat supplies will also find chocolate a little kinder on the wallet, with like-for-like chocolate confectionary prices now 3% lower than a year ago.

Halloween and Christmas are two of the most important moments of the year for chocolate confectionery, so falling prices will be welcome news for shoppers and retailers alike. After the double digit increases of 2025, a 3% drop won’t fully reverse what consumers have paid in recent months, but it should help ease some of the pressure on household budgets as the festive season approaches.

Lidl leads the way on share growth

Over the 12 weeks to 4 October, Lidl led in market share gains, climbing to 8.6%, up from 8.2% at the same time last year. Sales at Lidl were 7.1% higher, with strong growth across categories such as fruit, vegetables and wine. The discounter welcomed more than half a million additional customers through the doors over the 12 week period.

Sales at online specialist Ocado increased by 12.4%, outpacing overall online sales at 5.5%. Ocado accounted for 2.2% of the market, up from 2.0% a year ago.

Morrisons maintained the same 8.3% share of the market as in 2025, with sales up by 1.8%. Spending through the tills was 1.0% higher at Tesco and 1.3% higher at Sainsbury’s with the two retailers holding 27.8% and 15.2% of the market respectively. Asda share now stands at 11.5%, while Aldi now holds 10.5% of the market, with sales at the discounter up 0.4% year on year.

Waitrose sales increased by 2.3% with market share unchanged at 4.4%. Market share for Co-op also held steady capturing 5.4% of take-home spending at the grocers as sales rose by 1.8%. Iceland sales were up by 0.2% with share now at 2.2% of the market.

Beyond the supermarkets, grocery sales at M&S** rose by 14.9%.

*Worldpanel PanelVoice, Umfrage zu Interessengruppen, August 2026, 9.549 befragte Haushalte, FMCG-Panel. Erhebungszeitraum: 17. Juli bis 29. Juli 2026.

**Bitte beachten Sie: Da M&S einen höheren Anteil an Bekleidung und allgemeinen Handelswaren in seinem Umsatzmix hat, fällt das Unternehmen nicht unter die Definition von „Lebensmittelhändlern“ gemäß der Till-Roll-Methodik, auf der die Veröffentlichung der Worldpanel-Marktanteile im Lebensmittelbereich basiert.  Aus diesem Grund wird für M&S keine vergleichbare Marktanteilszahl angegeben. Die in dieser Aktualisierung angegebene Wachstumsrate von M&S bezieht sich nur auf den Verkauf von FMCG-Produkten, während die Zahlen für Lebensmittelhändler in der Tabelle „Grocery Market Share” die Gesamtausgaben an Supermarktkassen umfassen.

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Fraser McKevitt ‍
‍Leiterdes Bereichs Einzelhandel und Verbraucherforschung, Worldpanel by Numerator